Thanks. It is from my covid ridden holiday. Arthur Miller. . . . All I need is a pipe and Marilyn Monroe to complete the look. Glad to hear your surgery went well.
Hi Tommy I've been meaning to send you this for a while, it's a long podcast with John Grey the political philosopher I wrote about a few posts back
I find his argument that globalisation is dead and always was mistaken in thinking that Russia and China would become neutralised by it Entirely convincing. Likewise his suggestion that the vast numbers of people in the US now outside the work market plus the unprecedented rise in power of the Lords of the internet creates a version of feudalism and that the probable victory of Trump would see the US withdrawing support from Europe and even possibly from Taiwan while moving toward Autarky- also very persuasive.
Regarding globalization, if it had a chance, it was lost when the UK, the US and the rest of the West allowed Russia to slip into an oligarchy. Of course, Russia is Russia . . . but then Bill Clinton was being Bill and John Major was being ? so we are all somewhat to blame.
I am somewhat surprised at China’s backtracking on its economic reforms. If I were in power, I would fear a backlash from the new-money citizens if the economy gets worse.
The comments about the legitimization crisis and the possibility that the US could end up a semi-failed state or descend into autarky caught my attention.
I may be a little biased but I think that our individual states provide protection against the US becoming either a semi-failed state or more economically isolated. Even most Americans don’t realize the exponential strength that exists with having 50 individual republics, each with their own taxation, educational, social benefit, police, national guard and economic systems. Each state individually has a balanced budget. Our state governors are free to court foreign investments which South Carolina governors have done so with great skill.
While I think that the US has semi-failed-cities (Flint and Detroit come to mind), we do not have any individual states approaching failed-state status. The closest US territory that could be considered a semi-failed state is Puerto Rico who declared bankruptcy in 2022 (and why it cannot achieve statehood).
I am curious about his comments on the large number of people living outside of the labor market.
here/s a couple of paragraphs from the above that i thoight were interestng
The number of discouraged workers — those who’ve not searched for work recently because they don’t think they’ll find any — spiked during and after the Great Recession, peaking at 1.3 million in December 2010. Though that number has come down since, October’s estimate of 770,000 discouraged workers was still well above pre-recession levels, which typically hovered around 400,000 to 500,000.
But discouraged workers make up only about 35% of all marginally attached workers, and account for just over half the increase in their ranks since the 2008 financial panic. The rest of the marginally attached cite a range of reasons for not having looked for work recently, including family responsibilities, being in school, ill health, and problems with child care or transportation.
"Teens and young adults aren’t as interested in entering the work force as they used to be, a trend that predates the Great Recession . . .The share of 16- to 24-year-olds saying they didn’t want a job rose from an average 29.5% in 2000 to an average 39.4% over the first 10 months of this year."
Wow, that's disturbing. Poverty comes with falling expectations whereas revolution comes with rising expectations. And most national politicians understand that yet they refuse to propose any solutions. The opportunity cost is enormous.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of marginal workers actually vote.
In our governmental system the individual states created the federal government on the national level as well as the counties that form the governmental structure on the local level.
In the early 1990's, South Carolina was in a bidding process against several other states to attract a new BMW manufacturing plant. The state senator who represented my area was instrumental in bring the plant to the area where I live. We won the plant and the 900 promised jobs through a combination of technical education commitments made by the county technical college, utility and infrastructure upgrades and property tax waivers. The effort required cooperation between the state legislature and members of the county council made up of ordinary people elected from both political parties. Today, the plant employs 11,000 people and is the largest BMW plant outside of Germany. That does not include the workers employed by the many small companies that moved to the area and that are suppliers to BMW.
I said all of that to say this:
The Upstate of South Carolina was fundamentally changed by the political leadership of a few people with vision - something that is sorely lacking in American politics today on either side.
My dad was a life long Roosevelt Democrat who valued hard work, insisted that all of his children go to college but having lived through the Depression understood that sometimes people need help. I found that though I am a Republican, I never disagreed with him on that fundamental understanding.
HI I was vaguely aware of the intense inter state competition for foreign investment because I try to keep up developments in the chip industry and I recalll NC lost a huge investment because of some concerns about illiberal LBGTQ+ policies?
On the whole it is pretty measured but this para caught my eye
The United States may reach a point where the best it can hope for is to shore up democracy and inclusion in some states while abandoning others to a less democratic and inclusive future. This is, after all, what occurred under Jim Crow for eight decades. But America is not at this point yet, and an advocacy style that pushes the country closer to such a dystopic fate is in no way helpful to the goals of social justice. Instead, intense mobilization efforts built around a positive future vision are needed to galvanize voters without exacerbating antidemocratic attitudes.
Grey made a shocking point about life expectancy falling particularly in the the South this seems to be borne out by this report https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/118271
This piece notes the huge wealth gap and the unrest that might fuel.
I'll stop now but there is one other discussion I found totally facinating - it compares the perceptions of the failure of the Enlightenment at the end of the 8th Century with current day anxiety that we are nearing the end of an era with no clear philosophical/political or economic plans that seem up to the task of showing us a way ahead
sorry these are rather abrupt responses - i'm so pleased to have your interest but am feelign too rough to write much just now - so I'm simply bunging some references to you which seem to me to address some of yoru commets
I am somewhat surprised at China’s backtracking on its economic reforms. If I were in power, I would fear a backlash from the new-money citizens if the economy gets worse.
America's population grew by more than 1.75 million over 2023 and at midnight on New Year's Day, the population is expected to be 335,893,238, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday. As Americans ring in 2024, the population will have grown 1,759,535 since Jan. 1 of 2023, a 0.53% increase.
U.S. inactive labor force seasonally unadjusted 2021-2023
In December 2023, the inactive labor force amounted to about 101.33 million people in the United States. Labor force measures are based on the civilian non-institutional population 16 years old and over.
I meant to add that as you have been in the thick of political life I should be very interested in your take on his analysis...if you have the time and inclination to listen to it...
I enjoyed the tartness of your last line very much - is he as so sure he is right as my son? The boundless arrogance of youth - sometimes requires boundless patience.
The French have been outraged by RS’s playing with history and my Leninist flatmate Paul thought it was a terrible mistelling of history- making, as he saw it, Napoleon the sole instigator of everything bad when, as Paul sees it the man with the hat was defending the revolution against the old regimes of Europe.
Boundless patience indeed. I have to remind myself that my mother always said that I would argue with a stop sign so he comes by it honest. What frustrates me is the speed that his youthful brain can process connections. My old brain just can't keep up.
So, the French are outraged about a film that depicts the effects of their historical outrage? That is outrageous . . .
I just noticed your very cool profile pic - is that new - a touch of the Arthur Miller I thought
Thanks. It is from my covid ridden holiday. Arthur Miller. . . . All I need is a pipe and Marilyn Monroe to complete the look. Glad to hear your surgery went well.
Hi Tommy I've been meaning to send you this for a while, it's a long podcast with John Grey the political philosopher I wrote about a few posts back
I find his argument that globalisation is dead and always was mistaken in thinking that Russia and China would become neutralised by it Entirely convincing. Likewise his suggestion that the vast numbers of people in the US now outside the work market plus the unprecedented rise in power of the Lords of the internet creates a version of feudalism and that the probable victory of Trump would see the US withdrawing support from Europe and even possibly from Taiwan while moving toward Autarky- also very persuasive.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/novara-media/id1001507547?i=1000632273470
Hello Nick, I really enjoyed the podcast.
Regarding globalization, if it had a chance, it was lost when the UK, the US and the rest of the West allowed Russia to slip into an oligarchy. Of course, Russia is Russia . . . but then Bill Clinton was being Bill and John Major was being ? so we are all somewhat to blame.
I am somewhat surprised at China’s backtracking on its economic reforms. If I were in power, I would fear a backlash from the new-money citizens if the economy gets worse.
The comments about the legitimization crisis and the possibility that the US could end up a semi-failed state or descend into autarky caught my attention.
I may be a little biased but I think that our individual states provide protection against the US becoming either a semi-failed state or more economically isolated. Even most Americans don’t realize the exponential strength that exists with having 50 individual republics, each with their own taxation, educational, social benefit, police, national guard and economic systems. Each state individually has a balanced budget. Our state governors are free to court foreign investments which South Carolina governors have done so with great skill.
While I think that the US has semi-failed-cities (Flint and Detroit come to mind), we do not have any individual states approaching failed-state status. The closest US territory that could be considered a semi-failed state is Puerto Rico who declared bankruptcy in 2022 (and why it cannot achieve statehood).
I am curious about his comments on the large number of people living outside of the labor market.
Hi Tommy - here's a deeper analysis of the labor force numbers https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2014/11/14/more-and-more-americans-are-outside-the-labor-force-entirely-who-are-they/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20October%20jobs,to%20be%20counted%20as%20unemployed.
here/s a couple of paragraphs from the above that i thoight were interestng
The number of discouraged workers — those who’ve not searched for work recently because they don’t think they’ll find any — spiked during and after the Great Recession, peaking at 1.3 million in December 2010. Though that number has come down since, October’s estimate of 770,000 discouraged workers was still well above pre-recession levels, which typically hovered around 400,000 to 500,000.
But discouraged workers make up only about 35% of all marginally attached workers, and account for just over half the increase in their ranks since the 2008 financial panic. The rest of the marginally attached cite a range of reasons for not having looked for work recently, including family responsibilities, being in school, ill health, and problems with child care or transportation.
"Teens and young adults aren’t as interested in entering the work force as they used to be, a trend that predates the Great Recession . . .The share of 16- to 24-year-olds saying they didn’t want a job rose from an average 29.5% in 2000 to an average 39.4% over the first 10 months of this year."
Wow, that's disturbing. Poverty comes with falling expectations whereas revolution comes with rising expectations. And most national politicians understand that yet they refuse to propose any solutions. The opportunity cost is enormous.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of marginal workers actually vote.
In our governmental system the individual states created the federal government on the national level as well as the counties that form the governmental structure on the local level.
In the early 1990's, South Carolina was in a bidding process against several other states to attract a new BMW manufacturing plant. The state senator who represented my area was instrumental in bring the plant to the area where I live. We won the plant and the 900 promised jobs through a combination of technical education commitments made by the county technical college, utility and infrastructure upgrades and property tax waivers. The effort required cooperation between the state legislature and members of the county council made up of ordinary people elected from both political parties. Today, the plant employs 11,000 people and is the largest BMW plant outside of Germany. That does not include the workers employed by the many small companies that moved to the area and that are suppliers to BMW.
I said all of that to say this:
The Upstate of South Carolina was fundamentally changed by the political leadership of a few people with vision - something that is sorely lacking in American politics today on either side.
My dad was a life long Roosevelt Democrat who valued hard work, insisted that all of his children go to college but having lived through the Depression understood that sometimes people need help. I found that though I am a Republican, I never disagreed with him on that fundamental understanding.
HI I was vaguely aware of the intense inter state competition for foreign investment because I try to keep up developments in the chip industry and I recalll NC lost a huge investment because of some concerns about illiberal LBGTQ+ policies?
i found this from the Carneigie Foundation https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/09/05/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-united-states-what-research-says-pub-90457
On the whole it is pretty measured but this para caught my eye
The United States may reach a point where the best it can hope for is to shore up democracy and inclusion in some states while abandoning others to a less democratic and inclusive future. This is, after all, what occurred under Jim Crow for eight decades. But America is not at this point yet, and an advocacy style that pushes the country closer to such a dystopic fate is in no way helpful to the goals of social justice. Instead, intense mobilization efforts built around a positive future vision are needed to galvanize voters without exacerbating antidemocratic attitudes.
Grey made a shocking point about life expectancy falling particularly in the the South this seems to be borne out by this report https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/118271
This piece notes the huge wealth gap and the unrest that might fuel.
https://theconversation.com/is-america-a-failing-state-how-a-superpower-has-been-brought-to-the-brink-139680
I'll stop now but there is one other discussion I found totally facinating - it compares the perceptions of the failure of the Enlightenment at the end of the 8th Century with current day anxiety that we are nearing the end of an era with no clear philosophical/political or economic plans that seem up to the task of showing us a way ahead
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-end-of-enlightenment/id1682047968?i=1000642869737
sorry these are rather abrupt responses - i'm so pleased to have your interest but am feelign too rough to write much just now - so I'm simply bunging some references to you which seem to me to address some of yoru commets
I am somewhat surprised at China’s backtracking on its economic reforms. If I were in power, I would fear a backlash from the new-money citizens if the economy gets worse.
Xi has absolute power https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/02/tech/china-economy-crackdown-private-companies-intl-hnk/index.html
Opioid use disorders affect over 16 million people worldwide, over 2.1 million in the United States,
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK553166/
In turn i'm interested in your observations about the state structure - `i will need to undeerstnad that bettter
hi Tommy - in answer to your last line
America's population grew by more than 1.75 million over 2023 and at midnight on New Year's Day, the population is expected to be 335,893,238, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday. As Americans ring in 2024, the population will have grown 1,759,535 since Jan. 1 of 2023, a 0.53% increase.
U.S. inactive labor force seasonally unadjusted 2021-2023
In December 2023, the inactive labor force amounted to about 101.33 million people in the United States. Labor force measures are based on the civilian non-institutional population 16 years old and over.
Statista
8 Jan 2024
CBS New
I meant to add that as you have been in the thick of political life I should be very interested in your take on his analysis...if you have the time and inclination to listen to it...
I am happy to have a listen always happy to engage in a political discussion
I enjoyed the tartness of your last line very much - is he as so sure he is right as my son? The boundless arrogance of youth - sometimes requires boundless patience.
The French have been outraged by RS’s playing with history and my Leninist flatmate Paul thought it was a terrible mistelling of history- making, as he saw it, Napoleon the sole instigator of everything bad when, as Paul sees it the man with the hat was defending the revolution against the old regimes of Europe.
Boundless patience indeed. I have to remind myself that my mother always said that I would argue with a stop sign so he comes by it honest. What frustrates me is the speed that his youthful brain can process connections. My old brain just can't keep up.
So, the French are outraged about a film that depicts the effects of their historical outrage? That is outrageous . . .